Depth-Company-Shunxin Agriculture (000860): Steady growth in liquor business expenses gradually lead to lower-than-expected net profit

Depth * Company * Shunxin Agriculture 北京夜生活网 (000860): Steady growth in liquor business costs gradually lead to lower-than-expected net profit

Shun Xin Agriculture announces 3 quarterly reports for 19 years.

19 1-3Q19 achieved revenue of 110.

6 billion, an increase of 20 previously.

2%, net profit 6.

700 million, an increase of 23 previously.

9%, budget benefit 0.

02 yuan.

Revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 19 were 26.

500 million and 0.

200 million, revenue increased 34 in ten years.

3%, net profit fell 69 in ten years.

7%.

Parent company’s ending receipts (mainly liquor) 36.

700 million.

Net profit was lower than market expectations.

  Key points of support level 3Q19 revenue increased by 34 quarterly.

3%, meat-related business may accelerate.

(1) Judging from the grassroots survey and sales tax data, 3Q19 liquor sales maintained a steady growth trend.

The product structure was upgraded, and the upgraded version of aging wine was quickly released.

At the end of March 2019, the parent company’s prepayments (mainly liquor) remained at a high level.

700 million, down slightly from the previous month.

800 million, a decline significantly lower than the same period last year 5.
.

2 billion, with a previous appreciation of 14.

200 million, sufficient accumulation of water storage, advance receipts / income is the highest in liquor listed companies.

(2) 1-3Q19 hog prices continued to rise by 40%, of which 1H19 and 3Q19 rose by 20% and 72%, respectively. We judge that the revenue of meat-related businesses has accelerated.

If the company can increase the stock of meat in 3Q19, the profitability of meat-related businesses may improve.

(3) Based on the profit and loss judgment of minority shareholders, the real estate business in 19Q3 may continue to recognize revenue.

However, the most profitable downhill project sales progress exceeded expectations, the real estate business may continue to replace.

  Expenses were invested in advance, and the annual net profit in the third quarter of 19 was downgraded to 69.

7%, the performance was lower than market expectations.

Part of the absolute value of Shun Xin’s third quarter net profit, net profit for the third quarter of 2018 was zero.

5.5 billion, accounting for only 7% of the expected proportion.

In the third quarter of 19, sales expenses increased by 109% per year, and the absolute value increased by 0.

9.2 billion, we judge that based on the 2020 Spring Festival ahead of schedule, the company may have paid part of the sales expenses in advance.

  It is estimated that we maintain our 2019 net profit forecast, and it is expected that net profit will replace value-added in 2019-2020.

4% (assuming that the real estate business contributed profits in 4Q19), 36.

8%, achieving the expected return1.
62, 2.
21 yuan.

It is expected that the liquor business revenue in 19 years will increase by 15-20% and net profit will increase by 20-30%.

The growth of liquor business is highly certain. It is expected that the reform of state-owned enterprises will be promoted and the investment rating maintained.

  Major Risks to Ratings The progress of SOE reform exceeded expectations.