Sinotrans (601598): Complementary merger and subsequent synergies are expected
Investment Highlights: News / Announcement: The company released the 2018 annual report, the company achieved operating income of 733 billion, a long-term growth of 5.
68%, the net profit attributable to listed companies was 2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and the net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers was 1.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9%.
The performance is expected to decline slightly, and the gross profit margin is slightly reduced, but after the inclusion of the China-Europe train subsidies, it is basically flat.
The company’s gross profit margin for logistics business in 2018 was 7.
08%, about 0 last year.
The main reason for the decline was the accelerated expansion of the China-Europe train-related business, but it was 杭州桑拿 added to other income and was not included in the gross profit.
Other earnings of the company in 2018 6.
300 million, compared with 2 in the same period last year.
Among them, the main increment is the China-EU train subsidy. After taking the train subsidy into the gross profit, the company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was basically the same as that in 17 years.
Absorbed and accrued expenses, the fourth quarter deducted non-net profit is the lowest.
In the first quarter of 2018, the company’s non-net profit was 3, respectively.
4 billion, 5.
900 million, 4.
5 billion, -2.
The decrease in the deduction of non-net profit in the fourth quarter was initially provided for the estimated staff dismissal costs due to the absorption of the merger and integration of the foreign transportation development business, the transfer of deferred income assets, and the related losses of the assets for comprehensive impairment testing.
In which goodwill is impaired 1.
3.5 billion, which is the impairment loss of Shenzhen Henglu Logistics, which was originally owned by China Merchants Logistics.
Freight forwarding business volume improved in the second half of the year, and profitability of professional logistics business.
Throughout 2018, the volume of freight forwarder containers increased by 11.
6%, higher than 9 in the first half.
3% growth rate.
Air freight forwarding dropped by 0.
The initial volume of container ship shipping business increased by 9%, which was better than 5 in the first half.
6% growth rate.
The annual growth rate of professional logistics sector in 2018 was 8.
75%, lower than 10 in the first half of 18 years.
8% growth, but segment profit growth of 7.
33%, better than 5 in the first half of 2018.
3% growth rate.
The freight rate in the late stage of the trade war is still relatively strong, and the outlook is not pessimistic.
The company’s freight forwarding business contributed 61 of the revenue.
5%, operating profit of 43.
5%.Among them, ocean freight forwarding contributed 82% of the revenue of the freight forwarding segment and 59 of the segment profit.
Shipping freight forwarding business is mainly affected by container freight rates and volume.
In the late stage of the trade war and rushing to transport, the shipping company’s shipping capacity was prudently contracted to secure shipping rates.
The SCFI index continued to grow beyond the first quarter of 20198.
9%, of which the US line price increases 31% each year.
The freight rate keeps rising and the freight volume can still increase. We believe that the freight forwarding business will still strive to maintain stable growth in 2019.
The merger was completed, and DHL’s investment income contributed to the profit of the parent company.
In 2019, Sinotrans DHL confirmed investment income10.
500 million, an increase of 17 per year.
6%, Sinotrans DHL investment income in the same period last year.
On October 8, 2018, the merger and acquisition of the company was unconditionally approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission, and the company has completed the foreign exchange development and share swap work.
The minority stake in the investment income of the original Sinotrans DHL joint venture company is now fully returned to the final company, increasing the profit by about 4.
Update profit forecast and maintain “overweight” rating.
After the merger and acquisition of Sinotrans, we adjusted our profit forecast for 19-20 years and increased our profit forecast for 21 years.
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in the year 19-21 will be 27.
600 million, 28.
66 billion, 30.
38 billion, (the original forecast for Sinotrans 19 to 20 years is 14).
9.6 billion, 15.
We are optimistic about the development of Sinotrans ‘absorption and merger of Sinotrans and the internal integration of China Merchants Logistics and Sinotrans’ contract logistics business. We maintain our “Overweight” 淡水桑拿网 rating.